The results of a Foresight exercise: Outcome from a NO-FEAR internal evaluation Les résultats d'un exercice de prospective : conclusion d'une évaluation interne de NO-FEAR

The challenges that the health systems face in the last years increased exponentially. No matter if we are talking about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian military action in Ukraine, the European health ecosystem is facing new problems. In the light of these uncertainties, we assessed which could be the next trends that can impact the healthcare systems, in order to better prepare and adapt to the new contexts. Using two foresights exercises (FSE), one in 2018 and the second one in 2022, we had identified the most important trends in the political, economic, social, technological, security, environmental and medical sectors that could have an impact on health. Fifty-three people participated in the first FSE and 40 in the second one. The respondents identified cyber security, an increased reliance on digital technologies for communications, CBRNE management of the patients, centrally coordinated attacks, demographic aging, reduced economic resources, violence against emergency medical staff and the increased need and demand for psychosocial support as the most important trends. Moreover, they considered that wars, hybrid threats, the fake news, pandemics and the influence of artificial intelligence could impact the healthcare systems. Many of the trends identified in 2018 as having a possible impact on the health system proved to be relevant four years later. Therefore, we consider the FSE a relevant tool in foreseeing the main areas that could have an impact on health and its results could guide the preparedness for the future.

Predictors of intubation and mortality in COVID-19 patients: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the risk of intubation and mortality among COVID-19 patients can help clinicians triage these patients and allocate resources more efficiently. Thus, here we sought to identify the risk factors associated with intubation and intra-hospital mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients hospitalized due to hypoxemic acute respiratory failure (ARF). RESULTS: We included retrospectively a total of 187 patients admitted to the subintensive and intensive care units of the University Hospital "Maggiore della Carità" of Novara between March 1st and April 30th, 2020. Based on these patients' demographic characteristics, early clinical and laboratory variables, and quantitative chest computerized tomography (CT) findings, we developed two random forest (RF) models able to predict intubation and intra-hospital mortality. Variables independently associated with intubation were C-reactive protein (p < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase level (p = 0.018) and white blood cell count (p = 0.026), while variables independently associated with mortality were age (p < 0.001), other cardiovascular diseases (p = 0.029), C-reactive protein (p = 0.002), lactate dehydrogenase level (p = 0.018), and invasive mechanical ventilation (p = 0.001). On quantitative chest CT analysis, ground glass opacity, consolidation, and fibrosis resulted significantly associated with patient intubation and mortality. The major predictors for both models were the ratio between partial pressure of arterial oxygen and fraction of inspired oxygen, age, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, glycemia, CT quantitative parameters, lymphocyte count, and symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: Altogether, our findings confirm previously reported demographic, clinical, hemato-chemical, and radiologic predictors of adverse outcome among COVID-19-associated hypoxemic ARF patients. The two newly developed RF models herein described show an overall good level of accuracy in predicting intra-hospital mortality and intubation in our study population. Thus, their future development and implementation may help not only identify patients at higher risk of deterioration more effectively but also rebalance the disproportion between resources and demand.

Early extubation with immediate non-invasive ventilation versus standard weaning in intubated patients for coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective multicenter study.

In patients intubated for hypoxemic acute respiratory failure (ARF) related to novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we retrospectively compared two weaning strategies, early extubation with immediate non-invasive ventilation (NIV) versus standard weaning encompassing spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), with respect to IMV duration (primary endpoint), extubation failures and reintubations, rate of tracheostomy, intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay and mortality (additional endpoints). All COVID-19 adult patients, intubated for hypoxemic ARF and subsequently extubated, were enrolled. Patients were included in two groups, early extubation followed by immediate NIV application, and conventionally weaning after passing SBT. 121 patients were enrolled and analyzed, 66 early extubated and 55 conventionally weaned after passing an SBT. IMV duration was 9 [6-11] days in early extubated patients versus 11 [6-15] days in standard weaning group (p = 0.034). Extubation failures [12 (18.2%) vs. 25 (45.5%), p = 0.002] and reintubations [12 (18.2%) vs. 22 (40.0%) p = 0.009] were fewer in early extubation compared to the standard weaning groups, respectively. Rate of tracheostomy, ICU mortality, and ICU length of stay were no different between groups. Compared to standard weaning, early extubation followed by immediate NIV shortened IMV duration and reduced the rate of extubation failure and reintubation.

Clinical outcome with different doses of low-molecular-weight heparin in patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

A pro-thrombotic milieu and a higher risk of thrombotic events were observed in patients with CoronaVirus disease-19 (COVID-19). Accordingly, recent data suggested a beneficial role of low molecular weight heparin (LMWH), but the optimal dosage of this treatment is unknown. We evaluated the association between prophylactic vs. intermediate-to-fully anticoagulant doses of enoxaparin and in-hospital adverse events in patients with COVID-19. We retrospectively included 436 consecutive patients admitted in three Italian hospitals. Outcome according to the use of prophylactic (4000 IU) vs. higher (> 4000 IU) daily dosage of enoxaparin was evaluated. The primary end-point was in-hospital death. Secondary outcome measures were in-hospital cardiovascular death, venous thromboembolism, new-onset acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and mechanical ventilation. A total of 287 patients (65.8%) were treated with the prophylactic enoxaparin regimen and 149 (34.2%) with a higher dosing regimen. The use of prophylactic enoxaparin dose was associated with a similar incidence of all-cause mortality (25.4% vs. 26.9% with the higher dose; OR at multivariable analysis, including the propensity score: 0.847, 95% CI 0.400-0.1.792; p = 0.664). In the prophylactic dose group, a significantly lower incidence of cardiovascular death (OR 0.165), venous thromboembolism (OR 0.067), new-onset ARDS (OR 0.454) and mechanical intubation (OR 0.150) was observed. In patients hospitalized for COVID-19, the use of a prophylactic dosage of enoxaparin appears to be associated with similar in-hospital overall mortality compared to higher doses. These findings require confirmation in a randomized, controlled study.

"War to the knife" against thromboinflammation to protect endothelial function of COVID-19 patients.

In this viewpoint, we summarize the relevance of thromboinflammation in COVID-19 and discuss potential mechanisms of endothelial injury as a key point for the development of lung and distant organ dysfunction, with a focus on direct viral infection and cytokine-mediated injury. Entanglement between inflammation and coagulation and resistance to heparin provide a rationale to consider other therapeutic approaches in order to preserve endothelial function and limit microthrombosis, especially in severe forms. These strategies include nebulized heparin, N-acetylcysteine, plasma exchange and/or fresh frozen plasma, plasma derivatives to increase the level of endogenous anticoagulants (tissue factor pathway inhibitor, activated protein C, thrombomodulin, antithrombin), dipyridamole, complement blockers, different types of stem cells, and extracellular vesicles. An integrated therapy including these drugs has the potential to improve outcomes in COVID-19.